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Indian economy not to slow down in FY24: RBI article

India to maintain its pace of expansion achieved in FY23; RBI raises concern about inflation.


Unlike the global trend, the Indian economy will not slow down and maintain its pace of expansion achieved in FY23.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), however, raised its concern about inflation, particularly core inflation.

"We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," said an RBI article on the state of the economy published in the March edition of its bulletin.

The NSO's end-February data release indicates that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on domestic drivers, it said.

Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year, it said.

"Year-on-year growth rates do not reflect this pick-up of pace because by construction they are saddled with statistical base effects, and instead suggest a sequential slowing down through successive quarters of 2022-23 to an unsuspecting reader," said the article.

The article has been authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.

India's GDP, which recorded a growth of 4.4% in the Q3 of the current fiscal, is expected to rise to 7% for FY23. In FY22, the economy posted a growth of 9.1%.

"This is simple arithmetic; hardly a hurray at half-time. Also, unlike the global economy, India would not slow down it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," the article said.

Currently available forecasts of India's real GDP growth for 2023-24, including those of the RBI, settle between 6 and 6.5%.

The central bank said that views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the RBI.