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RBI Governor hints at rate hike in next policy

There will be some hike but how much I will not be able to tell now, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das; government likely to stick to fiscal deficit target.


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is looking at another rate hike in early June to bring down inflation which has stayed above the upper range of 6% for the past four months.

“Expectation of rate hike, it’s a no-brainer. There will be some hike but how much I will not be able to tell now… to say that 5.15 (per cent) may not be very accurate,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

The next monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for June 6-8.

Earlier this month, RBI raised the repo rate by 40 basis points to 4.40% following an off-cycle meeting. This was its first rate move in two years and its first hike in nearly four years.

The RBI and government have entered into another phase of coordinated action between fiscal and monetary authorities to cool down inflation, Das said in the interview.

RBI has taken a number of steps to moderate inflation in the last 2-3 months, he said. The government has also taken measures, including wheat export ban and cut in excise duty on petrol and diesel.

All these put together will have sobering impact on price rise, he added.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation galloped to eight-year high of 7.79% in April versus 6.95% in the previous month and 4.21% a year ago. The previous high was in May 2014 when retail inflation hit 8.33%

“Interest rates in almost every country today are negative, except Russia and Brazil. The target for inflation for advanced economies is about 2%. Except for Japan and one more country, all advanced economies have inflation of over 7%,” Das said.

“We will move towards positive real rates, but it is impossible to forecast how soon because of the evolving situation,” said the governor.

The RBI will not allow a runaway depreciation of the rupee, Das said, adding that the central bank will release a new inflation forecast at its June meeting.

Regarding fiscal deficit, Das said the government is likely to stick to its target. He also believes there may not be a need for raising the borrowing limit as well.

The fiscal deficit in 2022-23 is estimated at 6.4% of GDP, which is consistent with the broad path of fiscal consolidation announced last year to reach a level below 4.5% by 2025-26.

In the interview, Das spoke about the government's expenditure and borrowing. “There is no one-to-one correlation between the increase in government expenditure... and the need for additional borrowing," he said, adding that "these are all figures which keep moving throughout the year."

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