BANKS

Bank credit growth could moderate in FY25 amid tighter liquidity

Bank credit growth could moderate to 12-14% in next fiscal if deposit growth remains tepid, says S&P in a report.

Bank credit growth, which has remained strong, could moderate to 12-14% in the next fiscal if deposit growth remains tepid.

"Liquidity is tightening for Indian banks. The sector's strong credit growth could moderate to 12-14% in fiscal 2025 if deposit growth remains tepid, compounded by higher deposit costs and competition for funds," S&P said in a report titled 'Tight liquidity shackles Indian banks' robust credit growth'.

As deposit growth continues to lag credit leading to tight liquidity conditions, banks may be compelled to look for wholesale funding, S&P said, adding that higher costs of such funding could further strain margins and hurt profitability.

Rising cost of funds and potential rate cuts in fiscal 2025 will squeeze net interest margins, it added.

S&P expects the share of unsecured personal loans in the banks' total loan book to continue to rise.

This will also help banks to partly mitigate the downside risks to margins from tighter liquidity.

The Reserve Bank of India's recent ruling on applying higher risk weights to unsecured personal loans has not yet hindered rapid growth in this segment, S&P said.

Stable asset quality and steady capitalisation support the banks' credit profiles.

"Favourable equity markets and operating conditions could spur more banks to raise equity in 2024," S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Nikita Anand said.