India’s industrial output eased to 13.6% in June as against a 16.6% contraction a year ago during which period there was a nationwide lockdown due to the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

Manufacturing, which comprises 77.63% of index of industrial production (IIP), rose 13% in June after an increase of 34.5% in May. Mining output grew 23.1% and electricity increased by 8.3% in June, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

The production of consumer non-durables contracted by 4.5% in June 2021, and also trailed the pre-covid level. While the other use-based categories (except consumer non-durables) recorded a double-digit year-on-year growth on a muted base, their performance was 4-62% below June 2019. Capital goods and consumer durables continued to clock the worst performance in June 2021 relative to the pre-covid level, reflecting the impact of the pandemic on both investment plans and demand for big-ticket items.

“With the continued unlocking, several of the available high frequency indicators for July 2021, such as coal output, electricity demand, generation of GST e-way bills, non-oil merchandise exports and petrol consumption have climbed above their pre-Covid (July 2019) level. Nevertheless, a further normalisation in the base suggests that the IIP growth may slip into single-digits in July 2021,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.